Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Net Exporter Does Not Mean Independence

The U.S. oil & gas industry is now learning, and the rest of us will soon realize, that becoming a net-oil exporter does not make us "independent."  It just puts us on the other side of the game.  Now rather than cheer when oil prices tumble, our economy reels.

Independence is probably not the right objective anyway.  We thrive because of interdependence.  We can finance our government because Chinese are willing to borrow from us.  

Instead, we need to to think of oil as one part of an investment portfolio and that means we should diversify to minimize volatility and risk.  Being the supplier instead of the buyer is not diversification.  We  need multiple means of producing energy, especially ones that don't move in lockstep, positively or negatively. You don't achieve diversification owning gas and oil, for example.

Given that we all need energy, perhaps the only diversification will come in the form of long-term government support for all things clean(er) than gas, oil & coal and safer than nuclear.  Importer or exporter, if oil & gas is your only game, then your life will be dictated by the game.