Will Trump's Policies Give Us Chinese or Thai-Style Growth?

Trump promises growth above 3% and I say why not. China has done it for decades. Granted, they're measuring from a much lower starting point. It is far easier to generate growth going from nothing to something than it is going from having everything to having a little more of everything.

But Trump believes it's possible. 

Drop all the regulations meant to protect us (air, water, food, construction standards, gas exploration rules....) and then throw tons of taxpayer money at bridges, aircraft carriers, a 'yuge' wall between our arch nemesis Mexico... and we too can have China-style growth. 

Many economists question such rosy forecasts, but I say they're using Obama-era "logic." We can always build things we don't need. "Growth" is easy if you're willing to spend money. Trump's already incurring extra security costs for Trump Tower in New York, has the enforcement agencies working full tilt to round up 'illegals,' has military contractors salivating and construction companies hiring....

Could the same Republicans who wouldn't support funding to fight the Zika virus, now be willing to underwrite a federal spending spree? Maybe. It's been quite amazing to watch Republicans abandon all of their moral principles as well as many of their long-held political philosophies to support Trump. 

But even if they rediscover their fiscal roots, there remains the undoing of important regulations and pulling the rug out from under millions of Obamacare enrollees. In which case, another Asian country comes to my mind: Thailand. I have spent over four weeks in Thailand over the past seven years, broken up into three different visits. Some of the time was spent at resorts, but most of it in and around Bangkok. From my perspective, Thailand illustrates what happens when you have a corrupt, conservative political leadership (currently a military junta) combined with a relatively "free" economy (low taxes and limited--or unenforced--regulations). Based on my observations, the results appear as one might have expected: the rich have gotten richer, the poor have stayed roughly the same... and the air is much dirtier.

I hung out with Bangkok's elite at trendy new restaurants, drove with them in their fancy new cars and checked out their new high-priced lofts. I drove around Bangkok and saw artsy skyscrapers springing up everywhere. 

This picture was taken on an exceptionally clear day. But even when the visible pollution appears mild, the most dangerous type of pollution, so-called PM 2.5,  has increased steadily in Thailand recently.

Bangkok's legendary air conditioned shopping malls continue to flourish. (American mall owners should really take note; Thailand malls are the best.) Upper class Bangkok has all the usual amenities. And the Thai stock market agrees. Since my first visit in June of 2010 to my most recent visit in February, the Thai stock market's up nicely.

At the same time, all of this is taking place in an environment under siege. On most days, Bangkok smog limits high rise views to a few miles. This has been true for some time, but recent trends in so-called PM 2.5 pollution concur with my observations that it has gotten a lot worse since 2010: 

https://www.stateofglobalair.org/data

While economic growth favors the already-haves, pollution weighs on everybody. And at 68 million people, Thailand is bulging at the seams. Like many Asian cities, they have no where to go but up. Traffic is brutal and no one can drive their fancy new cars any faster than the ubiquitous moped hauling a family of five. The glorious Chao Phraya เจ้าพระยา watershed appears unsafe to swim.

Over development and poor planning has turned a super food generating estuary into a trash-distributing, food-tainting, man-made flood zone.

They choose not to fix telephone cables or repair sewage lines or pick up trash or perform other functions of government that us supposedly over taxed, heavily-regulated Americans expect, yet the Thai government finds time to pass a law against Buddha tattoos!

"Disrespect to Buddha is Wrong by Law."

The American parallel is the American Flag, our sacred object of national pride. While Trump is attempting to unwind rules to protect our land, air and water, he will stand for no flag disrespect:

The U.S. stock market has been on a tear since Trump was elected. A company's stock price should forecast its future earnings. Stock bulls believe American companies will have greater earnings because they will face fewer regulations going forward (or for at least a few more years). Companies that pollute will have less pollution control costs to worry about. Financial companies no longer need to be concerned about doing things in their client's "best interest." The cumulative effect of regulation reduction should mean higher profits for corporations, hence the stock market should rise.

Unfortunately, there's no free lunch. This rise comes at all of our expense. And this fact has long befuddled me. It appears many wealthy folks simply do not "believe in" the harmful effects of air pollution, water pollution, etc. These are the same folks who believe that "God" is in charge and only "faith" matters. A large contingent of conservatives believe God decides what harm comes your way based on your present or past behavior. The religious conservative worldview remains stubbornly consistent. A half millennium ago during the Bubonic plague era, no one understood that organisms existed that are invisible to our eyes. 

More commonly, though, I wager many rich folks do in fact fully understand that they're hurting themselves, their families and the planet in the long run. I acquiesce myself; I know my non-vegetarianism and wastefulness are chewing up this ever growing planet. But isn't it nice living in a material world? I see most of us succumb when saving the future demands even the slightest reduction to our present standards of living.  And "what's a little extra pollution in the whole scheme of things" and my own mortality haunting me.  "Why not make a boatload of money" even if it means a few less years for us all on average? This is the vibe I get from Trump.

It's always the same for the greedy rich. Obama's post-recession steady and solid growth and doubling of the stock market, all while providing health insurance for millions of low income families, was not enough, of course. Republicans continuously beat the drum that Obama's recovery has been the "slowest" recovery, never attempting nuanced coverage and never acknowledging that their prescription for the financial downturn was to dramatically cut government spending, the same strategy that flopped for Europe, who eventually came around to the Keynesian cure, a debt load that we should be unwinding today against the backdrop of a strong economy. 

Now Republicans seem to have flipped (quite possibly at exactly the wrong time again!). Debt is no longer immoral. (Of course, to be fair, spending for tax cuts and military have always been worth the interest charges for Republicans). 

With a Republican congress, Trump will have his way. But even without Congress, Trump can do some damage. Basically we're stuck between Trump moving us in a Chinese-style super growth mode if Congress acquiesces on infrastructure spending, or something more akin to a laissez faire Thailand-style growth model. Either way, expect more government corruption, censorship, civil rights violations... and more trouble breathing.